Leaderboard · running backs, wide receivers, tight ends
Touchdowns vs expected
His real touchdowns minus our estimate of what his chances usually produce. Est.
Why it matters: It shows whose touchdowns are running ahead of, or behind, their chances.
Exact definition: Rushing and receiving touchdowns minus the FFO model estimate of touchdowns from the same opportunities. All stats explained
2026 season · Weeks 1–3 · Updated Sep 29, 2026
More touchdowns than expected
| # | Player | Position | Team | Touchdowns vs expectedEst. | Touchdowns | Expected touchdownsEst. | Red-zone chances | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | +3.1 | 6 | 2.92 | 9 | 3 |
| 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | +2.3 | 5 | 2.70 | 9 | 3 |
| 3 | Noah Fant | TE | NO | +2.0 | 3 | 0.99 | 3 | 2 |
| 4 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | +1.9 | 6 | 4.13 | 23 | 3 |
| 5 | Christian Watson | WR | GB | +1.6 | 4 | 2.44 | 6 | 3 |
| 6 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | +1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 2 | 2 |
| 7 | Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | +1.6 | 6 | 4.45 | 20 | 3 |
| 8 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | +1.5 | 3 | 1.48 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Josh Palmer | WR | BUF | +1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | +1.5 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | +1.4 | 3 | 1.58 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | +1.4 | 3 | 1.59 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | George Kittle | TE | SF | +1.4 | 3 | 1.60 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Darren Waller | TE | CAR | +1.4 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | +1.3 | 2 | 0.67 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | +1.3 | 4 | 2.69 | 13 | 3 |
| 17 | Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | +1.2 | 2 | 0.85 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | +1.1 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 3 |
| 19 | Tyler Warren | TE | IND | +1.1 | 2 | 0.89 | 3 | 3 |
| 20 | Mike Evans | WR | SF | +1.1 | 2 | 0.93 | 2 | 3 |
| 21 | Nate Adkins | TE | DEN | +1.1 | 2 | 0.94 | 3 | 2 |
| 22 | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | +1.1 | 2 | 0.95 | 3 | 3 |
| 23 | Denzel Boston | WR | CLE | +1.0 | 2 | 1.00 | 3 | 3 |
| 24 | Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | +1.0 | 2 | 1.00 | 4 | 3 |
| 25 | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | +1.0 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 3 |
| 26 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | +0.9 | 3 | 2.07 | 3 | 3 |
| 27 | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | +0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 2 |
| 28 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | +0.8 | 3 | 2.21 | 8 | 3 |
| 29 | David Montgomery | RB | HOU | +0.8 | 3 | 2.21 | 8 | 3 |
| 30 | Konata Mumpfield | WR | LA | +0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 3 |
Ranked: players with at least 5 expected PPR points per game. 167 more players have fewer and aren't ranked. Covers weeks 1–3.
Fewer touchdowns than expected
| # | Player | Position | Team | Touchdowns vs expectedEst. | Touchdowns | Expected touchdownsEst. | Red-zone chances | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emanuel Wilson | RB | SEA | −3.0 | 0 | 3.03 | 10 | 3 |
| 2 | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | −2.6 | 0 | 2.60 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | −2.2 | 0 | 2.22 | 6 | 3 |
| 4 | George Holani | RB | SEA | −1.6 | 0 | 1.62 | 7 | 3 |
| 5 | Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | −1.6 | 0 | 1.56 | 5 | 3 |
| 6 | Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | −1.5 | 0 | 1.53 | 8 | 3 |
| 7 | George Pickens | WR | DAL | −1.4 | 0 | 1.44 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Josh Downs | WR | IND | −1.4 | 0 | 1.38 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | −1.3 | 0 | 1.28 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | −1.3 | 0 | 1.28 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | −1.3 | 2 | 3.28 | 19 | 3 |
| 12 | Mack Hollins | WR | NE | −1.2 | 0 | 1.18 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | −1.1 | 0 | 1.15 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Travis Etienne | RB | NO | −1.1 | 0 | 1.08 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | −1.0 | 0 | 1.04 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Chris Olave | WR | NO | −1.0 | 1 | 1.98 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Jared Wayne | WR | HOU | −1.0 | 0 | 0.98 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | −1.0 | 0 | 0.97 | 2 | 3 |
| 19 | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | HOU | −1.0 | 0 | 0.96 | 1 | 3 |
| 20 | DeMario Douglas | WR | NE | −0.9 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 | Dyami Brown | WR | WAS | −0.9 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 3 |
| 22 | Tez Johnson | WR | TB | −0.9 | 0 | 0.88 | 2 | 3 |
| 23 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | −0.9 | 1 | 1.86 | 5 | 3 |
| 24 | Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | −0.9 | 0 | 0.86 | 7 | 3 |
| 25 | D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | −0.8 | 3 | 3.85 | 15 | 3 |
| 26 | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | DET | −0.8 | 0 | 0.84 | 2 | 3 |
| 27 | Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | −0.8 | 1 | 1.83 | 5 | 3 |
| 28 | Puka Nacua | WR | LA | −0.8 | 0 | 0.82 | 1 | 1 |
| 29 | Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | −0.8 | 0 | 0.78 | 3 | 3 |
| 30 | Skyy Moore | WR | GB | −0.8 | 0 | 0.77 | 3 | 3 |