Leaderboard · running backs, wide receivers, tight ends
Touchdowns vs expected
His real touchdowns minus our estimate of what his chances usually produce. Est.
Why it matters: It shows whose touchdowns are running ahead of, or behind, their chances.
Exact definition: Official rushing and receiving touchdowns minus the FFO model estimate from recorded targets and carries. Lateral scores can fall outside those model opportunities; return touchdowns are excluded. All stats explained
2026 season · Weeks 1–9 · Report built
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Historical game data. Injury designations apply only to their stated report week; confirm current availability before setting a lineup.
More touchdowns than expected
| # | Player | Position | Team | Touchdowns vs expectedEst. | Touchdowns | Expected touchdownsEst. | Red-zone chances | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | +3.8 | 9 | 5.17 | 13 | 9 |
| 2 | Mike Gesicki | TE | CIN | +3.3 | 6 | 2.68 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | +3.2 | 6 | 2.84 | 7 | 8 |
| 4 | Christian Watson | WR | GB | +3.1 | 7 | 3.94 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | +2.9 | 6 | 3.08 | 10 | 8 |
| 6 | Brian Robinson | RB | ATL | +2.9 | 4 | 1.15 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Blake Corum | RB | LA | +2.6 | 5 | 2.45 | 15 | 9 |
| 8 | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | +2.4 | 7 | 4.59 | 22 | 8 |
| 9 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | +2.3 | 7 | 4.72 | 13 | 8 |
| 10 | Bucky Irving | RB | TB | +2.3 | 8 | 5.73 | 40 | 9 |
| 11 | Darren Waller | TE | CAR | +2.2 | 4 | 1.76 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | +2.2 | 5 | 2.84 | 7 | 8 |
| 13 | Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | +1.9 | 5 | 3.09 | 6 | 7 |
| 14 | Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | +1.8 | 3 | 1.16 | 8 | 8 |
| 15 | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | +1.8 | 6 | 4.22 | 11 | 7 |
| 16 | Darius Cooper | WR | PHI | +1.8 | 4 | 2.24 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | +1.7 | 7 | 5.26 | 25 | 8 |
| 18 | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | +1.7 | 4 | 2.29 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | +1.7 | 4 | 2.32 | 7 | 6 |
| 20 | DeMario Douglas | WR | NE | +1.7 | 4 | 2.34 | 4 | 9 |
| 21 | Noah Fant | TE | NO | +1.6 | 3 | 1.36 | 4 | 6 |
| 22 | James Cook | RB | BUF | +1.6 | 7 | 5.36 | 30 | 7 |
| 23 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | +1.6 | 11 | 9.45 | 53 | 8 |
| 24 | Rashee Rice | WR | KC | +1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 5 | 5 |
| 25 | Nate Adkins | TE | DEN | +1.5 | 3 | 1.46 | 4 | 3 |
| 26 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | +1.5 | 4 | 2.47 | 6 | 8 |
| 27 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | +1.5 | 4 | 2.49 | 8 | 9 |
| 28 | Tre Tucker | WR | LV | +1.5 | 4 | 2.51 | 7 | 9 |
| 29 | Jameson Williams | WR | DET | +1.4 | 5 | 3.56 | 8 | 8 |
| 30 | Tommy Tremble | TE | CAR | +1.4 | 3 | 1.56 | 5 | 8 |
Ranked: players with at least 5 expected PPR points per game. 262 more players have fewer and aren't ranked. Covers weeks 1–8 in full, plus week 9 so far (14 of 15 games played).
Fewer touchdowns than expected
| # | Player | Position | Team | Touchdowns vs expectedEst. | Touchdowns | Expected touchdownsEst. | Red-zone chances | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | −7.1 | 2 | 9.15 | 20 | 9 |
| 2 | Mike Washington Jr. | RB | LV | −2.5 | 1 | 3.54 | 17 | 9 |
| 3 | Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | −2.5 | 2 | 4.53 | 9 | 8 |
| 4 | DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | −2.4 | 1 | 3.44 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | Chase Brown | RB | CIN | −2.3 | 1 | 3.29 | 17 | 8 |
| 6 | Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | −2.3 | 3 | 5.28 | 23 | 8 |
| 7 | Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | −2.3 | 1 | 3.26 | 7 | 9 |
| 8 | Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | −2.0 | 4 | 6.05 | 33 | 9 |
| 9 | Adonai Mitchell | WR | NYJ | −1.9 | 1 | 2.94 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | George Holani | RB | SEA | −1.9 | 1 | 2.90 | 11 | 8 |
| 11 | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | DET | −1.8 | 0 | 1.83 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Jalen Brooks | WR | ARI | −1.7 | 0 | 1.66 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Cade Otton | TE | TB | −1.6 | 0 | 1.59 | 6 | 8 |
| 14 | Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | −1.6 | 1 | 2.57 | 8 | 8 |
| 15 | Chris Olave | WR | NO | −1.5 | 2 | 3.55 | 8 | 8 |
| 16 | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | −1.5 | 3 | 4.54 | 8 | 8 |
| 17 | Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | −1.5 | 2 | 3.52 | 9 | 9 |
| 18 | Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | −1.5 | 2 | 3.47 | 8 | 8 |
| 19 | Matthew Golden | WR | GB | −1.5 | 5 | 6.46 | 16 | 9 |
| 20 | Bam Knight | RB | ARI | −1.4 | 0 | 1.45 | 9 | 5 |
| 21 | Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | −1.4 | 0 | 1.44 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | BAL | −1.4 | 0 | 1.43 | 6 | 4 |
| 23 | Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | −1.4 | 4 | 5.43 | 27 | 7 |
| 24 | J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | −1.4 | 3 | 4.40 | 15 | 9 |
| 25 | Josh Downs | WR | IND | −1.3 | 1 | 2.35 | 7 | 9 |
| 26 | Elic Ayomanor | WR | TEN | −1.3 | 1 | 2.33 | 10 | 8 |
| 27 | Kendre Miller | RB | NO | −1.3 | 2 | 3.32 | 13 | 6 |
| 28 | Kaelon Black | RB | SF | −1.3 | 1 | 2.28 | 12 | 8 |
| 29 | Drake London | WR | ATL | −1.3 | 1 | 2.27 | 4 | 9 |
| 30 | George Pickens | WR | DAL | −1.3 | 2 | 3.26 | 7 | 8 |