Average depth of target
10.0 yds
40 targets with air yards · nflverse
Mean air yards on targeted passes with recorded air yards, including incomplete and intercepted passes.
Wide receiver · Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson gets about 3 of every 10 Vikings passes (27%), 40 targets in all. He's had 7 chances within 20 yards of the end zone and is scoring 14.4 fantasy points a game (PPR).
2026 season · Weeks 1–9 · Report built
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Historical game data. Injury designations apply only to their stated report week; confirm current availability before setting a lineup.
Season usage
6 games with a target, carry or dropback. Shares use those offensive-usage games. Fantasy averages use 6 recorded NFL weekly-stat appearances, including games without offensive touches.
Target share
27%
about 3 of every 10 passes
Air-yards share
31%
WOPR
0.62
Targets
40
Red-zone chances
7
End-zone targets
5
Expected points per gameEst.
12.1
Fantasy points per game (PPR)
14.4
Official rushing and receiving touchdowns: 4. The model estimates 2.3 touchdowns Est. from recorded targets and carries. Lateral scores can fall outside those model opportunities; return scores are excluded from this comparison.
Opportunity and performance
See the role, target quality and results behind the season totals. Every metric uses the sample shown.
Deep target rate
10.0%
4 of 40 targets with air yards · nflverse
Share of targets at least 20 air yards downfield, among targets with recorded air yards.
End-zone target rate
12.5%
5 of 40 targets with depth and field position · nflverse
Share of targets reaching the goal line or beyond, among targets with recorded air yards and field position.
Catch rate
70.0%
28 of 40 targets with completion result · nflverse
Completed targeted passes divided by targets with a recorded completion result; not adjusted for target difficulty.
Catchable-target rate
77.5%
31 of 40 targets with catchability charted · FTN Data via nflverse
Share of a receiver's joined charted targets marked catchable, among targets with a known catchability flag.
Drop rate on catchable targets
3.2%
1 of 31 catchable targets with drop charted · FTN Data via nflverse
Drops divided by joined charted targets marked catchable with a known drop flag; unknown charting is excluded.
Primary-read target rate
0.0%
0 of 31 targets with progression read charted · FTN Data via nflverse
Share of a receiver's targets marked primary read (code 0) among known progression reads 0, 1 and 2. Checkdowns, designed targets and scramble drills are excluded; this is not team target share.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Completed regular-season weeks only; samples can differ by metric.
Play-by-play: Weeks 1–8, 121 games. Games through Nov 2, 2026.
FTN charting: Weeks 1–8, 121 games (partial coverage). Charting pulled Nov 4, 2026. Excluded catchability/drop values on 16 contradictory charted plays. Other known charting remains available.
nflverse; calculations by Fantasy Football Outsiders (CC-BY-4.0).
Where he ranks
Among wide receivers who meet each leaderboard's minimum.
Target share by week
Week by week
Official weekly-stat appearances, including games with scoring but no recorded offensive usage. A dash means no usage or model value is available for that game.
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Target share | Air yards | Catches | Receiving yards | Carries | Red-zone chances | Fantasy points (PPR) | Expected pointsEst. | Points vs expectedEst. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 9 | 39% | 80 | 8 | 92 | 0 | 2 | 31.2 | 15.7 | +13.5 |
| 2 | CHI | 6 | 32% | 91 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | −3.0 |
| 3 | TB | 2 | 8% | 18 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 | 3.2 | +2.0 |
| 5 | NO | 7 | 24% | 74 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 1 | 18.8 | 13.4 | +5.4 |
| 7 | IND | 7 | 29% | 75 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | −3.1 |
| 8 | DET | 9 | 32% | 60 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 14.3 | 17.4 | −3.1 |
Talking points
Justin Jefferson has scored 4 touchdowns on modeled targets and carries that usually produce 2.3, per FFO's expected-points model.
Touchdowns above usage
- Touchdowns
- 4
- Expected touchdownsEst.
- 2.3
- Expected PPR per gameEst.
- 12.1
- PPR vs expected, per gameEst.
- +2.0
Observed: Weeks 1–3, 5 and 7–8 · 6 games
- Model estimate, not a forecast: v1 predicts about as well as raw points.
Vikings teammates
Compare with
Wide receivers whose expected points per game Est. are closest to his. See their usage side by side.