Sources
All football data comes from nflverse, published under the CC BY 4.0 licence. The current report uses:
- Play-by-play, 2026
- Weekly player stats (used to check our totals), 2026
- Official injury reports, 2026
- Rosters, 2026
- Schedule and results
Data: nflverse (CC BY 4.0); modified by Fantasy Football Outsiders.
The data is refreshed every day. A week's games appear once nflverse publishes them.
How usage is counted
Usage is counted play by play: every target, carry and dropback, and where on the field it started. Shares are of the team's totals in the games the player played.
- Targets
- Pass plays thrown to him, including interceptions; no two-point tries.
- Target share
- His targets divided by his team's targets in the games he played.
- Air-yards share
- His air yards divided by the air yards of all his team's pass attempts (throwaways included) in his games. Receivers only: screens make running-back values negative.
- WOPR
- Weighted opportunity rating: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share.
- End-zone targets
- Targets whose air yards reach the goal line.
- Carries
- Rushing attempts, including quarterback scrambles and kneels.
- Carry share
- His carries divided by his team's carries in the games he played.
- Red-zone opportunities
- Targets plus carries on plays that start at or inside the opponent's 20.
- Red-zone share
- His share of his team's red-zone opportunities in the games he played.
- Goal-line carries
- Carries that start at or inside the opponent's 5.
- Dropbacks
- Pass attempts, sacks and spikes (scrambles count as carries).
- EPA per dropback
- Expected points added per dropback, from nflverse's play-by-play model.
- CPOE
- Completion percentage over expected, in percentage points, from nflverse's completion model.
- Expected PPR per gameEst.
- FFO model estimate of what his targets, carries and passes usually score. It describes usage, not a forecast.
- PPR vs expected per gameEst.
- Points on his scrimmage plays minus the FFO model estimate, per game.
- Expected touchdownsEst.
- FFO model estimate of touchdowns from the same opportunities.
Defense matchups
The defense matchup numbers add up the weekly stats of every opposing quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end in games against a defense, then divide by the games that defense has played. Players count at the position on their player page. Fantasy points switch to the scoring you choose exactly, from each player's points and catches.
- Games
- Weeks in which opposing players had at least one target, carry or dropback against the defense.
- Fantasy points allowed per game
- Fantasy points of opposing players at the position in games against the defense (nflverse weekly stats, in the chosen scoring), divided by the defense's games.
- Targets allowed per game
- Targets to opposing players at the position (pass plays thrown to them, including interceptions; no two-point tries), per game.
- Catches allowed per game
- Catches by opposing players at the position, per game.
- Air yards allowed per game
- Yards the ball travelled in the air on targets to opposing players at the position, per game.
- Carries allowed per game
- Rushing attempts by opposing players at the position, including quarterback scrambles and kneels, per game.
- Red-zone opportunities allowed per game
- Targets plus carries of opposing players at the position on plays that start at or inside the defense's 20, per game.
- Pass attempts allowed per game
- Passes and spikes (not sacks) by opposing quarterbacks, per game.
- Passing yards allowed per game
- Passing yards by opposing quarterbacks, per game.
Checked against the official stats
Before a report is published, every player-game total from our play-by-play count is compared with nflverse's official weekly stats. The current report matched on 972 player-games with 0 mismatches. When totals don't match and the difference isn't a reviewed official stat correction, the new report is withheld until it's reviewed.
Expected points
FFO expected points (version xfp-buckets-1.0) estimates what each player's targets, carries and passes have usually scored, based on the same kinds of plays in the 2023–2025 seasons. It's an FFO model estimate, labeled Est. wherever it appears.
Expected points are what the same kinds of targets, carries and passes scored in past seasons. On held-out seasons they predict later scoring about as well as actual points do, not better, so they describe usage; they are not a forecast.
How it tested
Each test fits the model on the other seasons, then compares a player's first-half numbers with his second-half fantasy points in the held-out season. Higher correlations mean a better guide to later scoring.
| Held-out season | Players | Expected points → later points | Actual points → later points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 179 | r = 0.706 | r = 0.701 |
| 2024 | 191 | r = 0.676 | r = 0.720 |
First-half numbers: weeks 1–8. Later points: week 9 onward.
Rounding
Shares are stored to six decimal places and rounded half-up once for display, so every page agrees: 10 of 23 targets is 43% everywhere on the site.
What we don't have yet
Snap counts and routes run aren't in our licensed data, so shares are of team totals in the games a player played, not per snap or per route. A low share in a game can mean limited playing time.