Volume, not production
A.J. Brown has 35% of NE's air yards but is scoring 5.3 PPR points a game below what that usage usually produces.
- Air-yards share
- 35%
- Targets
- 20
- PPR vs expected, per gameEst.
- −5.3
Weeks 1 and 6–7 · 3 games
Usage comparison · Wide receivers
A.J. Brown vs Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson gets more of his team's passes (25% vs 22%), and they get the same share of their teams' air yards (35%). A.J. Brown has played 3 games and Justin Jefferson 4 games. Near the end zone, Justin Jefferson has had more chances (4 vs 3 plays within 20 yards), and the same share of their teams' chances there (15%). Justin Jefferson is scoring more fantasy points a game (15.9 vs 6.4, PPR), but the chances A.J. Brown gets usually score more: 11.6 vs 10.9 expected points a game Est..
2026 season · Weeks 1–7 · Updated Oct 23, 2026
WRNE
A.J. Brown- Fantasy points per game (PPR)
- 6.4
- Expected points per gameEst.
- 11.6
3 games with a target, carry or dropback
WRMIN
Justin Jefferson- Fantasy points per game (PPR)
- 15.9
- Expected points per gameEst.
- 10.9
4 games with a target, carry or dropback
Side by side
Season totals through week 6. Shares are of each player's team totals in the games he played. For counts and shares, the bigger number is in bold and the bars grow from the centre line.
| Stat | A.J. Brown | Justin Jefferson |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Passes thrown to him | ||
| Targets | 20 | 24 |
| Target share | 22% | 25% |
| Air-yards share | 35% | 35% |
| Catches | 9 | 19 |
| Receiving yards | 101 | 258 |
| Near the end zone | ||
| Red-zone chances | 3 | 4 |
| Red-zone share | 15% | 15% |
| End-zone targets | 1 | 3 |
| Touchdowns | ||
| Touchdowns | 0 | 3 |
| Expected touchdownsEst. | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Fantasy points | ||
| Fantasy points per game (PPR) | 6.4 | 15.9 |
| Fantasy points (PPR) | 19.1 | 63.7 |
| Expected points per gameEst. | 11.6 | 10.9 |
| Points vs expectedEst. | −5.3 | +4.5 |
Week by week
Each bar is one game. Pick a stat to compare.
Target share by week
Out of all the passes his team threw in his games, the part thrown to him.
- A.J. Brown
- Justin Jefferson
— no game with a target, carry or dropback that week.
| Week | A.J. Brown | Justin Jefferson |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13%against SEA | 39%against GB |
| 2 | — no game with a target, carry or dropback | 32%against CHI |
| 3 | — no game with a target, carry or dropback | 8%against TB |
| 4 | — no game with a target, carry or dropback | — no game with a target, carry or dropback |
| 5 | — no game with a target, carry or dropback | 24%against NO |
| 6 | 33%against NYJ | — no game with a target, carry or dropback |
| 7 | 20%against CHI | — no game with a target, carry or dropback |
Next to each number: that week's opponent. — no game with a target, carry or dropback that week.
Where they rank
Each player's place among players at his position who meet the leaderboard's minimum. Open a leaderboard for the full list.
| Leaderboard | A.J. Brown | Justin Jefferson |
|---|---|---|
| Target share leaders | #30of 109 wide receivers | #19of 109 wide receivers |
| Air-yards share leaders | #20of 109 wide receivers | #21of 109 wide receivers |
| Red-zone share leaders | #9of 75 wide receivers | #8of 75 wide receivers |
| Red-zone opportunity leaders | #54of 188 wide receivers | #46of 188 wide receivers |
| End-zone target leaders | #67of 188 wide receivers | #34of 188 wide receivers |
| Expected fantasy points leadersEst. | #35of 188 wide receivers | #36of 188 wide receivers |
Talking points
Fact-checked notes from the weekly usage report, with the numbers behind them.
A.J. Brown
Justin Jefferson
Touchdowns above usage
Justin Jefferson has scored 3 touchdowns on opportunities that usually produce 1.3, per FFO's expected-points model.
- Touchdowns
- 3
- Expected touchdownsEst.
- 1.3
- Expected PPR per gameEst.
- 10.9
- PPR vs expected, per gameEst.
- +4.5
Weeks 1–3 and 5 · 4 games
- Model estimate, not a forecast: v1 predicts about as well as raw points.
Keep exploring
A.J. Brown
More comparisons