FantasyOutsiders

Leaderboard · running backs, wide receivers, tight ends

Fantasy points vs expected

His points on modeled scrimmage plays minus our estimate, per offensive-usage game. Plus means he scored more than his role usually does; minus means less. Est.

Why it matters: It shows when a player's points are running ahead of, or behind, his role.

Exact definition: Points on his scrimmage plays minus the FFO model estimate, per game. All stats explained

2026 season · Weeks 1–9 · Report built

Showing the saved fallback report. The latest report could not be confirmed; use the coverage and build date shown here.

Historical game data. Injury designations apply only to their stated report week; confirm current availability before setting a lineup.

Scoring above their usage

Fantasy points vs expected, 2026
#PlayerPositionTeamPoints vs expectedEst.Expected points per gameEst.Fantasy points per game (PPR)Games
1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA+6.319.525.89
2Omar Cooper Jr.WRNYJ+5.89.815.74
3Tee HigginsWRCIN+5.214.820.08
4Christian WatsonWRGB+5.014.919.79
5Mike GesickiTECIN+3.97.511.57
6Nate AdkinsTEDEN+3.95.84.83
7Tyquan ThorntonWRKC+3.97.411.24
8Tank DellWRHOU+3.89.213.02
9Jaylin NoelWRHOU+3.75.89.57
10Brock BowersTELV+3.617.820.97
11Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN+3.616.420.08
12Jordan WatkinsWRSF+3.66.09.64
13Rashee RiceWRKC+3.59.813.25
14Bhayshul TutenRBJAX+3.412.515.98
15Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC+3.321.224.68
16Charlie JonesWRNYG+3.25.41.71
17James CookRBBUF+3.216.218.87
18Jaylen WarrenRBPIT+3.114.717.68
19Caleb DouglasWRMIA+3.09.112.15
20Nick MuseTEATL+3.05.21.21
21Nico CollinsWRHOU+3.012.315.36
22Zay FlowersWRBAL+3.013.015.98
23Jahmyr GibbsRBDET+2.923.726.28
24Pat BryantWRDEN+2.86.39.55
25Luther Burden IIIWRCHI+2.613.015.19
26Travis KelceTEKC+2.69.912.48
27Brian RobinsonRBATL+2.56.48.96
28Dalton KincaidTEBUF+2.58.811.37
29George KittleTESF+2.512.014.38
30Bijan RobinsonRBATL+2.317.520.09

Ranked: players with at least 5 expected PPR points per game. 216 more players have fewer and aren't ranked. Covers weeks 1–8 in full, plus week 9 so far (14 of 15 games played).

Scoring below their usage

Scoring below their usage, 2026
#PlayerPositionTeamPoints vs expectedEst.Expected points per gameEst.Fantasy points per game (PPR)Games
1Michael WilsonWRARI−6.419.813.49
2Will MalloryTEIND−5.77.72.02
3A.J. BrownWRNE−5.311.66.43
4Jalen BrooksWRARI−5.28.42.24
5DK MetcalfWRPIT−4.714.49.78
6De'Von AchaneRBMIA−4.512.78.23
7Reggie VirgilWRARI−4.37.12.83
8Dameon PierceRBPHI−4.214.210.03
9Jared WayneWRMIA−4.27.72.13
10KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRLAC−4.211.34.12
11Adonai MitchellWRNYJ−3.613.39.75
12Jayden ReedWRGB−3.36.53.22
13Kendre MillerRBNO−3.310.16.46
14Brenen ThompsonWRLAC−3.05.32.31
15Emeka EgbukaWRTB−3.014.211.17
16Jalen NailorWRLV−2.87.44.67
17Pierre StrongRBGB−2.88.35.54
18Elijah MitchellRBPHI−2.79.26.63
19Travis EtienneRBNO−2.712.410.33
20Zach CharbonnetRBSEA−2.710.57.82
21Courtland SuttonWRDEN−2.59.57.19
22Ja'Kobi LaneWRBAL−2.57.03.64
23Jadarian PriceRBSEA−2.59.66.35
24Josh JacobsRBGB−2.517.114.63
25Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE−2.514.011.58
26Cade OttonTETB−2.47.95.58
27Chase BrownRBCIN−2.415.612.78
28Josh DownsWRIND−2.410.88.39
29Bryce LanceWRNO−2.35.12.98
30Jeremiyah LoveRBARI−2.311.28.96

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